Australia's uncertain demographic future

Wilson, Tom and Bell, Martin (2004) Australia's uncertain demographic future. Demographic Research, 11 8: 195-234. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2004.11.8

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Author Wilson, Tom
Bell, Martin
Title Australia's uncertain demographic future
Journal name Demographic Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1435-9871
Publication date 2004-09-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.4054/DemRes.2004.11.8
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 11
Issue 8
Start page 195
End page 234
Total pages 40
Place of publication Rostock, Germany
Publisher Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Language eng
Subject 370501 Population Trends and Policies
1603 Demography
Abstract The techniques of probabilistic population forecasting are increasingly being recognised as a profitable means of overcoming many of the limitations of conventional deterministic variant population forecasts. This paper applies these techniques to present the first comprehensive set of probabilistic population forecasts for Australia. We stress the disadvantages of directly inputting net migration into the cohort component model in probabilistic forecasting, and propose a gross migration flows model which distinguishes between permanent and non-permanent immigration and emigration. Our forecasts suggest that there is a two thirds probability of Australia's population being between 23.0 and 25.8 million by 2026 and between 24.4 and 31.8 million by 2051. Comparisons with the latest official population projections of the Australian Bureau of Statistics are made.
Keyword Australia
Migration forecasts
Population forecasting
Q-Index Code C1

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Created: Mon, 23 Oct 2006, 10:00:00 EST by Jesse Mills on behalf of Faculty of Science