A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Potgieter, A. B., Hammer, G. L., Doherty, A. and de Voil, P. (2005) A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia. Agricultural And Forest Meteorology, 132 1-2: 143-153. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.009


Author Potgieter, A. B.
Hammer, G. L.
Doherty, A.
de Voil, P.
Title A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia
Journal name Agricultural And Forest Meteorology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0168-1923
Publication date 2005-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.009
Volume 132
Issue 1-2
Start page 143
End page 153
Total pages 11
Place of publication Amsterdam
Publisher Elsevier Science Bv
Language eng
Subject C1
300299 Crop and Pasture Production not elsewhere classified
620104 Other cereals
Abstract Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword Agronomy
Forestry
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Agro-climatic Model
Stress Index
Crop Forecasting System
Technology Trend
Southern-oscillation Index
Soil-water
Crop
Simulation
Stress
Wheat
Variability
Validation
Prediction
Drought
Q-Index Code C1

 
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Created: Wed, 15 Aug 2007, 15:53:41 EST