Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

Hoque, Muhammad Al-Amin, Phinn, Stuart, Roelfsema, Chris and Childs, Iraphne (2017) Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques. International Journal of Digital Earth, 1-18. doi:10.1080/17538947.2017.1320595


Author Hoque, Muhammad Al-Amin
Phinn, Stuart
Roelfsema, Chris
Childs, Iraphne
Title Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques
Journal name International Journal of Digital Earth   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1753-8947
1753-8955
Publication date 2017-04-26
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1080/17538947.2017.1320595
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Start page 1
End page 18
Total pages 18
Place of publication Abingdon, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Language eng
Abstract Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.
Keyword Climate change
Geospatial techniques
Hazard
Risk
Tropical cyclone
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online 26 April 2017

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
 
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Created: Fri, 15 Sep 2017, 10:17:51 EST by Ashleigh Paroz on behalf of Learning and Research Services (UQ Library)