The chances that an emergency physician will demonstrate three abdominal aortic aneurysms by ultrasound in the emergency department for credentialing: A statistician's view

Chu, Kevin H., Pelecanos, Anita, Brown, Nathan J. and Brown, Anthony F. T. (2017) The chances that an emergency physician will demonstrate three abdominal aortic aneurysms by ultrasound in the emergency department for credentialing: A statistician's view. Emergency Medicine Australasia, 29 4: 464-466. doi:10.1111/1742-6723.12812


Author Chu, Kevin H.
Pelecanos, Anita
Brown, Nathan J.
Brown, Anthony F. T.
Title The chances that an emergency physician will demonstrate three abdominal aortic aneurysms by ultrasound in the emergency department for credentialing: A statistician's view
Journal name Emergency Medicine Australasia   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1742-6723
1742-6731
Publication date 2017-05-31
Year available 2017
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/1742-6723.12812
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 29
Issue 4
Start page 464
End page 466
Total pages 3
Place of publication Richmond, VIC, Australia
Publisher Blackwell Publishing
Language eng
Subject 2711 Emergency Medicine
Abstract The Australasian College for Emergency Medicine requires 15 proctored examinations of the aorta for credentialing in ultrasonography for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Furthermore, at least three examinations need to be positive for an aneurysm. In the ED where AAA presentations are sporadic, what are the chances that an emergency physician (EP) will have the opportunity to demonstrate three AAAs in the next 12 months? The probability of an event occurring within a given time-frame can be modelled by the Poisson distribution. Central to the Poisson distribution is the infrequency of the event such as encountering an AAA in the ED. An EP working 30 clinical hours/week in our tertiary-referral hospital ED can be expected to encounter 15.6 (3.6 symptomatic + 12 asymptomatic) AAA in the next 12 months. The probability of seeing three or more cases during this time is 99.9%. Assuming a proctor can be found for half the cases, the probability of an EP performing proctored ultrasound examinations in at least three AAAs is 98%. This probability drops to 89% if a proctor can be found for only one-third of cases. For an EP to be almost 100% certain of meeting the credentialing requirements, he/she would need almost 10 proctored ultrasound cases of AAA to be available within his/her shifts during the year. The Poisson distribution has enabled us to model the probability of encountering a given number of AAA in the ED. Analysis such as this may help rationalise the numbers needed for credentialing.
Keyword aortic aneurysm
credentialing
emergency medicine
Poisson distribution
ultrasonography
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
Faculty of Medicine
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 0 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article
Scopus Citation Count Cited 0 times in Scopus Article
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 01 Aug 2017, 00:11:40 EST by System User on behalf of Learning and Research Services (UQ Library)