Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

Weatherley, D, Mora, P and Xia, MF (2002) Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching. Pure And Applied Geophysics, 159 10: 2469-2490. doi:10.1007/s00024-002-8743-6

Author Weatherley, D
Mora, P
Xia, MF
Title Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching
Journal name Pure And Applied Geophysics   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0033-4553
ISBN 3-7643-6916-7
Publication date 2002-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s00024-002-8743-6
Volume 159
Issue 10
Start page 2469
End page 2490
Total pages 22
Editor Prof. M. Matsu'ura
Prof. P. Mora
Dr A. Donnellan and Prof. X.C. Yin
Place of publication Basel, Switzerland
Publisher Birkhauser Verlag
Language eng
Subject C1
260206 Earthquake Seismology
Abstract We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.
Keyword Geochemistry & Geophysics
Critical Point Hypothesis
Cellular Automata
Correlation Evolution
Q-Index Code C1

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) - Collection
Earth Systems Science Computational Centre Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 23 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Wed, 15 Aug 2007, 04:54:45 EST