Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases study 2015

Cohen, Aaron J., Brauer, Michael Brauer, Burnett, Richard, Anderson, H. Ross, Frostad, Joseph, Estep, Kara, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Brunekreef, Bert, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Feigin, Valery, Freedman, Greg, Hubbell, Bryan, Jobling, Amelia, Kan, Haidong, Knibbs, Luke, Liu, Yang, Martin, Randall, Morawska, Lidia, Pope III, C. Arden, Shin, Hwashin, Straif, Kurt, Shaddick, Gavin, Thomas, Matthew, van Dingenen, Rita, van Donkelaar, Aaron, Vos, Theo, Murray, Christopher J. L. and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. (2017) Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases study 2015. Lancet, . doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6


Author Cohen, Aaron J.
Brauer, Michael Brauer
Burnett, Richard
Anderson, H. Ross
Frostad, Joseph
Estep, Kara
Balakrishnan, Kalpana
Brunekreef, Bert
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
Feigin, Valery
Freedman, Greg
Hubbell, Bryan
Jobling, Amelia
Kan, Haidong
Knibbs, Luke
Liu, Yang
Martin, Randall
Morawska, Lidia
Pope III, C. Arden
Shin, Hwashin
Straif, Kurt
Shaddick, Gavin
Thomas, Matthew
van Dingenen, Rita
van Donkelaar, Aaron
Vos, Theo
Murray, Christopher J. L.
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.
Title Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases study 2015
Journal name Lancet   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0140-6736
1474-547X
Publication date 2017-04-10
Year available 2017
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6
Open Access Status DOI
Total pages 12
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher The Lancet Publishing Group
Collection year 2018
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background

Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels.

Methods

We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure.

Findings

Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015.

Interpretation

Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
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Created: Wed, 19 Apr 2017, 13:26:37 EST by Luke Knibbs on behalf of School of Public Health