Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin, Australia

Liu, Rui, Chen, Yun, Wu, Jianping, Gao, Lei, Barrett, Damian, Xu, Tingbao, Li, Linyi, Huang, Chang and Yu, Jia (2016) Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin, Australia. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 30 6: 1575-1590. doi:10.1007/s00477-015-1198-y

Author Liu, Rui
Chen, Yun
Wu, Jianping
Gao, Lei
Barrett, Damian
Xu, Tingbao
Li, Linyi
Huang, Chang
Yu, Jia
Title Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin, Australia
Journal name Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1436-3259
Publication date 2016-08-01
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s00477-015-1198-y
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 30
Issue 6
Start page 1575
End page 1590
Total pages 16
Place of publication Heidelberg, Germany
Publisher Springer
Language eng
Abstract Flooding hazard evaluation is the basis of flooding risk assessment which has significances to natural environment, human life and social economy. This study develops a spatial framework integrating naïve Bayes (NB) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess flooding hazard at regional scale. The methodology was demonstrated in the Bowen Basin in Australia as a case study. The inputs into the framework are five indices: elevation, slope, soil water retention, drainage proximity and density. They were derived from spatial data processed in ArcGIS. NB as a simplified and efficient type of Bayesian methods was used, with the assistance of remotely sensed flood inundation extent in the sampling process, to infer flooding probability on a cell-by-cell basis over the study area. A likelihood-based flooding hazard map was output from the GIS-based framework. The results reveal elevation and slope have more significant impacts on evaluation than other input indices. Area of high likelihood of flooding hazard is mainly located in the west and the southwest where there is a high water channel density, and along the water channels in the east of the study area. High likelihood of flooding hazard covers 45 % of the total area, medium likelihood accounts for about 12 %, low and very low likelihood represents 19 and 24 %, respectively. The results provide baseline information to identify and assess flooding hazard when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in the study offer an integrated approach in evaluation of flooding hazard with spatial distributions and indicative uncertainties. It can also be applied to other hazard assessments.
Keyword Inundation
Spatial uncertainty
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Grant ID 41201548
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Sustainable Minerals Institute Publications
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