Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change

Martinez-Harms, Maria Jose, Bryan, Brett A., Figueroa, Eugenio, Pliscoff, Patricio, Runting, Rebecca K. and Wilson, Kerrie A. (2017) Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change. Ecosystem Services, 25 56-68. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.03.021

Author Martinez-Harms, Maria Jose
Bryan, Brett A.
Figueroa, Eugenio
Pliscoff, Patricio
Runting, Rebecca K.
Wilson, Kerrie A.
Title Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change
Journal name Ecosystem Services   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 2212-0416
Publication date 2017-06-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.03.021
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 25
Start page 56
End page 68
Total pages 13
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier BV
Language eng
Abstract Scenarios provide a platform to explore the provision of ecosystem services under global change. Despite their relevance to land-use policy, there is a paucity of such assessments, particularly in developing countries. Central Chile provides a good example from the Latin American realm as the region has experienced rapid transformation from natural landscapes to urbanization and agricultural development. Local experts from Central Chile identified climate change, urbanization, and fire regimes as key drivers of change. Scenarios depicting plausible future trajectories of change were developed to assess the combined effects on carbon storage, wine production, and scenic beauty for the year 2050. Across the region, the action of the drivers reduced the total amount of carbon storage (by 85%) and wine production (by 52%) compared with a baseline scenario, with minor changes incurred for scenic beauty. The carbon storage and wine production had declined by 90% and scenic beauty by 28% when the reaction to changed fire regimes was also taken into account. The cumulative outcomes of climate change and urbanization are likely to place substantial pressures on ecosystem services in Central Chile by mid-century, revealing the need for stronger planning regulations to manage land-use change
Keyword Carbon storage
Climate change
Scenic beauty
Wine production
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Biological Sciences Publications
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
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