The validity of US nutritional surveillance: USDA's loss-adjusted food availability data series 1971-2010

Archer, Edward, Thomas, Diana M., McDonald, Samantha M., Pavela, Gregory, Lavie, Carl J., Hill, James O. and Blair, Steven N. (2016) The validity of US nutritional surveillance: USDA's loss-adjusted food availability data series 1971-2010. Current Problems in Cardiology, 41 11-12: 268-292. doi:10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2016.10.007

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Author Archer, Edward
Thomas, Diana M.
McDonald, Samantha M.
Pavela, Gregory
Lavie, Carl J.
Hill, James O.
Blair, Steven N.
Title The validity of US nutritional surveillance: USDA's loss-adjusted food availability data series 1971-2010
Journal name Current Problems in Cardiology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1535-6280
Publication date 2016-11-01
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2016.10.007
Open Access Status File (Author Post-print)
Volume 41
Issue 11-12
Start page 268
End page 292
Total pages 25
Place of publication Philadelphia, PA United States
Publisher Mosby
Language eng
Abstract The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the 1971-2010 United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) loss-adjusted food availability (LAFA) per capita caloric consumption estimates. Estimated total daily energy expenditure (TEE) was calculated for nationally representative samples of US adults, 20-74 years, using the Institute of Medicine’s predictive equations with “low-active” (TEE L-ACT) and “sedentary” (TEE SED) physical activity values. TEE estimates were subtracted from LAFA estimates to create disparity values (kcal/d). A validated mathematical model was applied to calculate expected weight change in reference individuals resulting from the disparity. From 1971-2010, the disparity between LAFA and TEE L-ACT varied by 394 kcal/d—(P < 0.001), from −205 kcal/d (95% CI: −214, −196) to +189 kcal/d (95% CI: 168, 209). The disparity between LAFA and TEE SED varied by 412 kcal/d (P < 0.001), from −84 kcal/d (95% CI: −93, −76) to +328 kcal/d (95% CI: 309, 348). Our model suggests that if LAFA estimates were actually consumed, reference individuals would have lost ~1-4 kg/y from 1971-1980 (an accumulated loss of ~12 to ~36 kg), and gained ~3-7 kg/y from 1988-2010 (an accumulated gain of ~42 to ~98 kg). These estimates differed from the actual measured increments of 10 kg and 9 kg in reference men and women, respectively, over the 39-year period. The USDA LAFA data provided inconsistent, divergent estimates of per capita caloric consumption over its 39-year history. The large, variable misestimation suggests that the USDA LAFA per capita caloric intake estimates lack validity and should not be used to inform public policy.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
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Created: Fri, 31 Mar 2017, 14:55:16 EST by Anthony Yeates on behalf of School of Medicine