Temperature and cardiovascular mortality associations in four southern Chinese cities: a time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model

Huang, Jixia, Tan, Jing and Yu, Weiwei (2017) Temperature and cardiovascular mortality associations in four southern Chinese cities: a time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Sustainability, 9 3: . doi:10.3390/su9030321


Author Huang, Jixia
Tan, Jing
Yu, Weiwei
Title Temperature and cardiovascular mortality associations in four southern Chinese cities: a time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model
Journal name Sustainability   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 2071-1050
Publication date 2017-03-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.3390/su9030321
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 9
Issue 3
Total pages 14
Place of publication Basel, Switzerland
Publisher M D P I AG
Collection year 2018
Language eng
Abstract Few studies on population-specific health effects of extreme temperature on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) deaths have been conducted in the subtropical and tropical climates of China. We examined the association between extreme temperature and CVD across four cities in China. We performed a two-stage analysis; we generated city-specific estimates using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and estimated the overall effects by conducting a meta-analysis. Heat thresholds of 29 °C, 29 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C and cold thresholds of 6 °C, 10 °C, 14 °C, and 15 °C were observed in Hefei, Changsha, Nanning, and Haikou, respectively. The lag periods for heat-related CVD mortality were observed only for 0-2 days, while those of cold-related CVD mortality were observed for 10-15 days. The meta-analysis showed that a 1 °C increase above the city-specific heat threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.6% (3.0%-6.2%), 6.4% (3.4%-9.4%), and 0.2% (-4.8%-5.2%) for all ages, ≥65 years, and < 65 years over a lag period of 0-2 days, respectively. Similarly, a 1 °C decrease below the city-specific cold threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.2% (3.0%-5.4%), 4.9% (3.5%-6.3%), and 3.1% (1.7%-4.5%), for all ages, ≥65 years, and < 65 years over a lag period of 0-15 days, respectively. This work will help to take appropriate measures to reduce temperature-mortality risk in different populations in the subtropical and tropical climates of China.
Keyword Cardiovascular
Lag effects
Population-specific
Subtropical
Temperature
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
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