Trends in hormone use and ovarian cancer incidence in US white and Australian women: implications for the future

Webb, Penelope M., Green, Adèle C. and Jordan, Susan J. (2017) Trends in hormone use and ovarian cancer incidence in US white and Australian women: implications for the future. Cancer Causes and Control, 1-6. doi:10.1007/s10552-017-0868-0


Author Webb, Penelope M.
Green, Adèle C.
Jordan, Susan J.
Title Trends in hormone use and ovarian cancer incidence in US white and Australian women: implications for the future
Journal name Cancer Causes and Control   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1573-7225
0957-5243
Publication date 2017-02-23
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s10552-017-0868-0
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Start page 1
End page 6
Total pages 6
Place of publication Dordrecht, Netherlands
Publisher Springer Netherlands
Collection year 2018
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Purpose: To compare trends in ovarian cancer incidence in the USA and Australia in relation to changes in oral contraceptive pill (OCP) and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use.

Methods: US cancer incidence data (1973–2013) were accessed via SEER*Stat; Australian data (1982–2012) were accessed from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Cancer Incidence and Mortality books. Age-period-cohort models were constructed to assess trends in ovarian cancer incidence by birth cohort and year of diagnosis.

Results: Ovarian cancer rates were increasing until the cohorts born around 1918 in the USA and 1923 in Australia who were the first to use the OCP. They then declined dramatically across subsequent cohorts such that rates for the 1968 cohort were about half those of women born 45 years earlier; however, there are early suggestions that this decline may not continue in more recent cohorts. In contrast, despite the large reduction in MHT use, there was no convincing evidence that ovarian cancer incidence rates in either country were lower after 2002 than would have been expected based on the declining trend from 1985.

Conclusions: The major driver of ovarian cancer incidence rates appears to be the OCP. This means that when those women born since the late 1960s (who have used the OCP at high rates from an early age) reach their 60s and 70s, incidence rates are likely to stop falling and may even increase with changes in the prevalence of other factors such as tubal ligation and obesity. Forward predictions based on past trends may thus underestimate future rates and numbers of women likely to be affected.
Keyword Incidence rates
Menopausal hormone therapy
Oral contraceptive pill
Ovarian cancer
Trends
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Public Health Publications
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: Scopus Citation Count Cited 1 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 14 Mar 2017, 00:24:17 EST by System User on behalf of Learning and Research Services (UQ Library)