A chironomid-based mean July temperature inference model from the south-east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China

Zhang, Enlou, Chang, Jie, Cao, Yanmin, Tang, Hongqu, Langdon, Pete, Shulmeister, James, Wang, Rong, Yang, Xiangdong and Shen, Ji (2017) A chironomid-based mean July temperature inference model from the south-east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China. Climate of the Past, 13 3: 185-199. doi:10.5194/cp-13-185-2017


Author Zhang, Enlou
Chang, Jie
Cao, Yanmin
Tang, Hongqu
Langdon, Pete
Shulmeister, James
Wang, Rong
Yang, Xiangdong
Shen, Ji
Title A chironomid-based mean July temperature inference model from the south-east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China
Journal name Climate of the Past   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1814-9324
1814-9332
Publication date 2017-03-08
Year available 2017
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.5194/cp-13-185-2017
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 13
Issue 3
Start page 185
End page 199
Total pages 15
Place of publication Goettingen, Germany
Publisher Copernicus GmbH
Collection year 2018
Language eng
Formatted abstract
A chironomid-based calibration training set comprised of 100 lakes from south-western China was established. Multivariate ordination analyses were used to investigate the relationship between the distribution and abundance of chironomid species and 18 environmental variables from these lakes. Canonical correspondence analyses (CCAs) and partial CCAs showed that mean July temperature is one of the independent and significant variables explaining the second-largest amount of variance after potassium ions (K+) in 100 south-western Chinese lakes. Quantitative transfer functions were created using the chironomid assemblages for this calibration data set. The second component of the weighted-average partial least squares (WA-PLS) model produced a coefficient of determination (r2bootstrap) of 0.63, maximum bias (bootstrap) of 5.16 and root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 2.31 °C. We applied the transfer functions to a 150-year chironomid record from Tiancai Lake (26°38′3.8 N, 99°43′ E; 3898 m a.s.l.), Yunnan, China, to obtain mean July temperature inferences. We validated these results by applying several reconstruction diagnostics and comparing them to a 50-year instrumental record from the nearest weather station (26°51′29.22′′ N, 100°14′2.34′′ E; 2390 m a.s.l.). The transfer function performs well in this comparison. We argue that this 100-lake large training set is suitable for reconstruction work despite the low explanatory power of mean July temperature because it contains a complete range of modern temperature and environmental data for the chironomid taxa observed and is therefore robust.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Earth Sciences Publications
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Created: Sun, 12 Mar 2017, 00:50:47 EST by Jie Chang on behalf of School of Earth and Environmental Sciences