Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change

Williams, C. R., Mincham, G., Faddy, H., Viennet, E., Ritchie, S. A. and Harley, D. (2016) Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change. Epidemiology and Infection, 144 14: 3091-3100. doi:10.1017/S095026881600162X

Author Williams, C. R.
Mincham, G.
Faddy, H.
Viennet, E.
Ritchie, S. A.
Harley, D.
Title Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change
Journal name Epidemiology and Infection   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0950-2688
Publication date 2016-07-01
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1017/S095026881600162X
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 144
Issue 14
Start page 3091
End page 3100
Total pages 10
Place of publication Cambridge, United Kingdom
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Language eng
Abstract Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046–2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.
Keyword Arboviruses
climate (impact of)
dengue fever
infectious disease epidemiology
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Grant ID 1 003 371
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Mater Research Institute-UQ (MRI-UQ)
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