Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

Gonzalez-Orozco, Carlos E., Pollock, Laura J., Thornhill, Andrew H., Mishler, Brent D., Knerr, Nunzio, Laffan, Shawn W., Miller, Joseph T., Rosauer, Dan F., Faith, Daniel P., Nipperess, David A., Kujala, Heini, Linke, Simon, Butt, Nathalie, Kulheim, Carsten, Crisp, Michael D. and Gruber, Bernd (2016) Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6 12: 1110-1114. doi:10.1038/nclimate3126

Author Gonzalez-Orozco, Carlos E.
Pollock, Laura J.
Thornhill, Andrew H.
Mishler, Brent D.
Knerr, Nunzio
Laffan, Shawn W.
Miller, Joseph T.
Rosauer, Dan F.
Faith, Daniel P.
Nipperess, David A.
Kujala, Heini
Linke, Simon
Butt, Nathalie
Kulheim, Carsten
Crisp, Michael D.
Gruber, Bernd
Title Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change
Journal name Nature Climate Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1758-6798
Publication date 2016-11-24
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/nclimate3126
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 6
Issue 12
Start page 1110
End page 1114
Total pages 5
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Language eng
Subject 2301 Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
3301 Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
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