The burden of lung cancer mortality attributable to fine particles in China

Guo, Yuming, Zeng, Hongmei, Zheng, Rongshou, Li, Shanshan, Pereira, Gavin, Liu, Qiyong, Chen, Wanqing and Huxley, Rachel (2016) The burden of lung cancer mortality attributable to fine particles in China. Science of the Total Environment, 579 1460-1466. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.147


Author Guo, Yuming
Zeng, Hongmei
Zheng, Rongshou
Li, Shanshan
Pereira, Gavin
Liu, Qiyong
Chen, Wanqing
Huxley, Rachel
Title The burden of lung cancer mortality attributable to fine particles in China
Journal name Science of the Total Environment   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0048-9697
1879-1026
Publication date 2016-11-29
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.147
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 579
Start page 1460
End page 1466
Total pages 7
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier BV
Language eng
Abstract Although studies have examined the associations between fine particles (PM2.5) and lung cancer mortality in US and European countries, the evidence is still limited for China. In addition, no study has provided estimates of spatial variation in lung cancer mortality attributable to PM2.5 in China. In this study, we quantified the associations between lung cancer mortality and PM2.5, using a spatiotemporal model with observed data of lung cancer mortality from 75 communities from the National Cancer Registration of China from 1990 to 2009 and the annual concentrations of PM2.5 at 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution. We also estimated lung cancer mortality burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, with predicted county level lung cancer deaths in 2005. We found that the PM2.5-lung cancer mortality associations were non-linear, with thresholds of 40μg/m3 overall, 45μg/m3 for male, 42μg/m3 for female, 45μg/m3 for those aged 30-64years, 48μg/m3 for those aged 65-74years, and 40μg/m3 for those aged 75years and more, above which the relative risks were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.09), 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.08), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.14), 1.05 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.07), 1.07 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.09), and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.16) respectively. There were 51,219 (95% CI: 45,745-56,512) lung cancer deaths attributed to PM2.5 in 2005, with attributable fractions of 13.7% (95% CI: 12.23-15.11%) overall, 10.01% (95% CI: 8.37-11.58%) for men, 18.06% (95% CI: 15.81-20.18%) for women, 8.35% (95% CI: 6.07-10.51%) for those aged 65-74years, 9.73% (95% CI: 7.6-11.75%) for those aged 65-74years, 21.7% (95% CI: 19.27-23.99%) for those aged 75years or more. In conclusion, assuming a causal relation a reduction in exposure levels of PM2.5 below thresholds would avert a substantial number of deaths from lung cancer in China.
Formatted abstract
Although studies have examined the associations between fine particles (PM2.5) and lung cancer mortality in US and European countries, the evidence is still limited for China. In addition, no study has provided estimates of spatial variation in lung cancer mortality attributable to PM2.5 in China. In this study, we quantified the associations between lung cancer mortality and PM2.5, using a spatiotemporal model with observed data of lung cancer mortality from 75 communities from the National Cancer Registration of China from 1990 to 2009 and the annual concentrations of PM2.5 at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution. We also estimated lung cancer mortality burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, with predicted county level lung cancer deaths in 2005. We found that the PM2.5-lung cancer mortality associations were non-linear, with thresholds of 40 μg/m3 overall, 45 μg/m3 for male, 42 μg/m3 for female, 45 μg/m3 for those aged 30–64 years, 48 μg/m3 for those aged 65–74 years, and 40 μg/m3 for those aged 75 years and more, above which the relative risks were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.09), 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.08), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.14), 1.05 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.07), 1.07 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.09), and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.16) respectively. There were 51,219 (95% CI: 45,745–56,512) lung cancer deaths attributed to PM2.5 in 2005, with attributable fractions of 13.7% (95% CI: 12.23–15.11%) overall, 10.01% (95% CI: 8.37–11.58%) for men, 18.06% (95% CI: 15.81–20.18%) for women, 8.35% (95% CI: 6.07–10.51%) for those aged 65–74 years, 9.73% (95% CI: 7.6–11.75%) for those aged 65–74 years, 21.7% (95% CI: 19.27–23.99%) for those aged 75 years or more. In conclusion, assuming a causal relation a reduction in exposure levels of PM2.5 below thresholds would avert a substantial number of deaths from lung cancer in China.
Keyword Air pollution
Attributable fraction
Attributable risk
Fine particles
Lung cancer mortality
Spatial age-period-cohort study
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
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Created: Wed, 30 Nov 2016, 23:49:56 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health