Assessment of the Value of Long Range Weather Forecasts in Wheat Harvest Management

Abawi G.Y., Smith R.J. and Brady D.K. (1995) Assessment of the Value of Long Range Weather Forecasts in Wheat Harvest Management. Journal of Agricultural Engineering Research, 62 1: 39-48. doi:10.1006/jaer.1995.1061


Author Abawi G.Y.
Smith R.J.
Brady D.K.
Title Assessment of the Value of Long Range Weather Forecasts in Wheat Harvest Management
Journal name Journal of Agricultural Engineering Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0021-8634
Publication date 1995-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1006/jaer.1995.1061
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 62
Issue 1
Start page 39
End page 48
Total pages 10
Language eng
Subject 1104 Complementary and Alternative Medicine
Abstract Quality losses from weather damaged wheat cost the Australian wheat industry on average around $A30M annually. These losses are higher in the north-eastern region than in other regions of the Australian wheat belt because of spring and summer dominant rainfall coinciding with harvest. If a wet season can be predicted, growers could reduce grain losses by strategies such as early harvesting, contract harvesting, additional grain drying and harvesting at a faster rate. In north-eastern Australia, long-range rainfall forecasting is possible by the analysis of sea surface temperatures and air-pressure differences between Tahiti (17·S 150·w) and Darwin (12·S 131·E) as identified by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Using monthly SOI and rainfall data since 1890, this paper examines the relationship between the SOI and rainfall during the harvest period in north-eastern Australia. A simulation model of wheat harvesting and drying developed earlier was used to investigate the value of seasonal forecasts as a decision aid in harvest management. The results show that in north-eastern Australia, the status of the SOI as early as May gives a reasonable indication of above- or below-average rainfall in the following spring and summer (October-December). This information could enable growers to minimize grain quality damage by altering their management practices according to seasonal variations in rainfall. This could involve harvesting of high-moisture grain and drying it or, the use of contract harvesting when the seasonal outlook for rainfall is high. The value of such information to the producer is predicted to be around $A12ha per year through improvements in grain quality and reduced losses.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Scopus Import - Archived
 
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Created: Tue, 05 Jul 2016, 15:08:19 EST by System User