Effectiveness of seat belt legislation on the queensland road toll—an australian case study in intervention analysis

Bhattacharyya M.N. and Layton A.P. (1979) Effectiveness of seat belt legislation on the queensland road toll—an australian case study in intervention analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 367: 596-603. doi:10.1080/01621459.1979.10481655


Author Bhattacharyya M.N.
Layton A.P.
Title Effectiveness of seat belt legislation on the queensland road toll—an australian case study in intervention analysis
Journal name Journal of the American Statistical Association   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1537-274X
Publication date 1979-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1080/01621459.1979.10481655
Volume 74
Issue 367
Start page 596
End page 603
Total pages 8
Subject 2613 Statistics and Probability
1804 Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Abstract The effect of seat belt legislation introduced in the state of Queensland was examined by using two approaches. The first approach consisted of modeling time series of road deaths before intervention (the legislation) as a Box-Jenkins univariate time series model. As we expected, this model proved to be inadequate in explaining the postintervention period, and the model was modified to incorporate the expected form of the intervention effects. Results showed that the legislation produced significant reduction in the road toll, but this analytical approach was limited in describing long-run effects. The second approach, involving causal model and incorporating a proxy explanatory variable and autoregressive-moving average error, was fruitful in overcoming the limitation of the previous approach. The long-run legislative effect was quantified, at a specific level of the explanatory variable, to be a 46 percent reduction in deaths.
Keyword Box-Jenkins univariate time series model
Causal model
Time series modeling
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Scopus Import - Archived
 
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Created: Tue, 05 Jul 2016, 13:08:51 EST by System User