A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process

Steffens P.R. (2003) A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70 9: 901-917. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00398-0


Author Steffens P.R.
Title A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process
Journal name Technological Forecasting and Social Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0040-1625
Publication date 2003-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00398-0
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 70
Issue 9
Start page 901
End page 917
Total pages 17
Subject 1403 Econometrics
1405 Management of Technology and Innovation
3202 Applied Psychology
Abstract This paper develops and tests a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition. Multiple-unit adoptions are a major component of sales for many consumer durable product categories. For instance, sales of multiple-unit adoptions for televisions have been higher than both first adoptions and replacement purchases since 1977, while for automobiles, they have represented more than 20% of sales since 1966 in Australia. The structural drivers of multiple-unit adoptions are quite different from either first purchase or replacement purchase. Hence, identifying and modeling the multiple-unit component of sales is important for aggregate sales forecasts. Moreover, consumer requirements for additional units of a product are likely to be considerably different than for the other components of sales (first purchases and replacement purchases). As such, the ratio of the first, multiple, and replacement sales components will strongly influence the product mix requirements of the market. While forecasting and influencing multiple-unit sales are an important managerial issue, very little attention has been given to multiple-unit ownership in the diffusion modeling literature. The only model available was developed for the purpose of modeling relatively short-term behavior of multiple-unit adoptions, rather than the longer-term pattern of sales. We propose a model of multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process. We apply the model to both color television and automobiles. Analysis of the model's long-term fit and forecasts in these applications provide support for the structure of the new model.
Keyword Diffusion
Durable products
Marketing models
Ownership
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Scopus Import - Archived
 
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Created: Tue, 28 Jun 2016, 17:23:02 EST by System User