Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis

Gasparrini, Antonio, Guo, Yuming, Hashizume, Masahiro, Lavigne, Eric, Tobias, Aurelio, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel D., Leone, Michela, Michelozzi, Paola, Kan, Haidong, Tong, Shilu, Honda, Yasushi, Kim, Ho and Armstrong, Ben G. (2016) Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology, 183 11: 1027-1036. doi:10.1093/aje/kwv260

Author Gasparrini, Antonio
Guo, Yuming
Hashizume, Masahiro
Lavigne, Eric
Tobias, Aurelio
Zanobetti, Antonella
Schwartz, Joel D.
Leone, Michela
Michelozzi, Paola
Kan, Haidong
Tong, Shilu
Honda, Yasushi
Kim, Ho
Armstrong, Ben G.
Title Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis
Journal name American Journal of Epidemiology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0002-9262
Publication date 2016-05-02
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1093/aje/kwv260
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 183
Issue 11
Start page 1027
End page 1036
Total pages 10
Place of publication Cary, United States
Publisher Oxford University Press
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Few studies have examined the variation in mortality risk associated with heat during the summer. Here, we apply flexible statistical models to investigate the issue by using a large multicountry data set. We collected daily time-series data of temperature and mortality from 305 locations in 9 countries, in the period 1985–2012. We first estimated the heat-mortality relationship in each location with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models, using a bivariate spline to model the exposure-lag-response over lag 0–10. Estimates were then pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis. Results provide strong evidence of a reduction in risk over the season. Relative risks for the 99th percentile versus the minimum mortality temperature were in the range of 1.15–2.03 in early summer. In late summer, the excess was substantially reduced or abated, with relative risks in the range of 0.97–1.41 and indications of wider comfort ranges and higher minimum mortality temperatures. The attenuation is mainly due to shorter lag periods in late summer. In conclusion, this multicountry analysis suggests a reduction of heat-related mortality risk over the summer, which can be attributed to several factors, such as true acclimatization, adaptive behaviors, or harvesting effects. These findings may have implications on public health policies and climate change health impact projections.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Public Health Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 9 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Sun, 08 May 2016, 08:20:53 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health