Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat - assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change

Zheng, Bangyou, Chenu, Karine and Chapman, Scott C. (2016) Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat - assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change. Global Change Biology, 22 2: 921-933. doi:10.1111/gcb.13118

Author Zheng, Bangyou
Chenu, Karine
Chapman, Scott C.
Title Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat - assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change
Journal name Global Change Biology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1365-2486
Publication date 2016-02-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/gcb.13118
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 22
Issue 2
Start page 921
End page 933
Total pages 13
Place of publication Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Language eng
Formatted abstract
By accelerating crop development, warming climates may result in mismatches between key sensitive growth stages and extreme climate events, with severe consequences for crop yield and food security. Using recent estimates of gene responses to vernalization and photoperiod in wheat, we modelled the flowering times of all ‘potential’ genotypes as influenced by the velocity of climate change across the Australian wheatbelt. In the period 1957–2010, seasonal increases in temperature of 0.012 °C yr−1 were recorded and changed flowering time of a mid-season wheat genotype by an average −0.074 day yr−1, with flowering ‘velocity’ of up to 0.95 km yr−1 towards the coastal edges of the wheatbelt; this is an estimate of how quickly the given genotype would have to be ‘moved’ across the landscape to maintain its original flowering time. By 2030, these national changes are projected to accelerate by up to 3-fold for seasonal temperature and by up to 5-fold for flowering time between now and 2030, with average national shifts in flowering time of 0.33 and 0.41 day yr−1 between baseline and the worst climate scenario tested for 2030 and 2050, respectively. Without new flowering alleles in commercial germplasm, the life cycle of wheat crops is predicted to shorten by 2 weeks by 2030 across the wheatbelt for the most pessimistic climate scenario. While current cultivars may be otherwise suitable for future conditions, they will flower earlier due to warmer temperatures. To allow earlier sowing to escape frost, heat and terminal drought, and to maintain current growing period of early-sown wheat crops in the future, breeders will need to develop and/or introduce new genetic sources for later flowering, more so in the eastern part of the wheatbelt.
Keyword Adaptation
Climate velocity
Flowering time
Global warming
Triticum spp
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
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