Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

Garcia Molinos, Jorge, Halpern, Benjamin S., Schoeman, David S., Brown, Christopher J., Kiessling, Wolfgang, Moore, Pippa J., Pandolfi, John M., Poloczanska, Elvira S., Richardson, Anthony J. and Burrows, Michael T. (2016) Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity. Nature Climate Change, 6 1: 83-88. doi:10.1038/nclimate2769

Author Garcia Molinos, Jorge
Halpern, Benjamin S.
Schoeman, David S.
Brown, Christopher J.
Kiessling, Wolfgang
Moore, Pippa J.
Pandolfi, John M.
Poloczanska, Elvira S.
Richardson, Anthony J.
Burrows, Michael T.
Title Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity
Journal name Nature Climate Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1758-6798
Publication date 2016-01-01
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/nclimate2769
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 6
Issue 1
Start page 83
End page 88
Total pages 6
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Language eng
Subject 2301 Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
3301 Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.
Keyword Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Grant ID NE/J024082/1
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Mathematics and Physics
Global Change Institute Publications
HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Biological Sciences Publications
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 47 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 50 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 12 Jan 2016, 10:28:47 EST by System User on behalf of Learning and Research Services (UQ Library)