Incorporating uncertainty in predicting the future response of coral reefs to climate change

Pandolfi, John M. (2015) Incorporating uncertainty in predicting the future response of coral reefs to climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 46 281-303. doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091811


Author Pandolfi, John M.
Title Incorporating uncertainty in predicting the future response of coral reefs to climate change
Journal name Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1545-2069
1543-592X
Publication date 2015-12-04
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091811
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 46
Start page 281
End page 303
Total pages 23
Place of publication Palo Alto, CA, United States
Publisher Annual Reviews
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract Coral reefs are considered one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to ongoing global climate change. However, geographic and taxonomic responses to climate change are highly variable, and fundamental aspects of key research approaches remain unresolved, leaving substantial uncertainty in our ability to predict the future of coral reefs. I review the ecological and evolutionary response of coral reefs to climate change in a broad temporal context, primarily focusing on tropical reef corals. I show critical gaps in our understanding that impede accurate prediction of future responses. These gaps include the response of past reefs to global change, the interpretation of coral response to thermal stress and ocean acidification, how corals and other reef organisms might respond evolutionarily, and our approach to evaluating response to climate in the context of multiple stressors. Reducing uncertainty by filling these gaps and by incorporating variation in geographic and taxonomic response will substantially improve our ability to model coral reef futures and manage coral reefs.
Keyword Coral bleaching
Evolution
Evolutionary ecology
Fossil record
Global warming
Ocean acidification
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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