Cardiovascular mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature in China

Yang, Jun, Yin, Peng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ou, Chun-quan, Guo, Yuming, Gasparrini, Antonio, Liu, Yunning, Yue, Yujuan, Gu, Shaohua, Sang, Shaowei, Luan, Guijie, Sun, Qinghua and Liu, Qiyong (2015) Cardiovascular mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature in China. Heart, 2015 24: 1-7. doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2015-308062

Author Yang, Jun
Yin, Peng
Zhou, Maigeng
Ou, Chun-quan
Guo, Yuming
Gasparrini, Antonio
Liu, Yunning
Yue, Yujuan
Gu, Shaohua
Sang, Shaowei
Luan, Guijie
Sun, Qinghua
Liu, Qiyong
Title Cardiovascular mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature in China
Journal name Heart   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1468-201X
Publication date 2015-11-13
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1136/heartjnl-2015-308062
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 2015
Issue 24
Start page 1
End page 7
Total pages 7
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher BMJ Group
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Objective To examine cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature; to estimate effect modification of this burden by gender, age and education level.

We obtained daily data on temperature and CVD mortality from 15 Chinese megacities during 2007–2013, including 1 936 116 CVD deaths. A quasi-Poisson regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the temperature-mortality association for each city. Then, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to derive the overall effect estimates of temperature at the national level. Attributable fraction of deaths were calculated for cold and heat (ie, temperature below and above minimum-mortality temperatures, MMTs), respectively. The MMT was defined as the specific temperature associated to the lowest mortality risk.

Results The MMT varied from the 70th percentile to the 99th percentile of temperature in 15 cities, centring at 78 at the national level. In total, 17.1% (95% empirical CI 14.4% to 19.1%) of CVD mortality (330 352 deaths) was attributable to ambient temperature, with substantial differences among cities, from 10.1% in Shanghai to 23.7% in Guangzhou. Most of the attributable deaths were due to cold, with a fraction of 15.8% (13.1% to 17.9%) corresponding to 305 902 deaths, compared with 1.3% (1.0% to 1.6%) and 24 450 deaths for heat.

Conclusions This study emphasises how cold weather is responsible for most part of the temperature-related CVD death burden. Our results may have important implications for the development of policies to reduce CVD mortality from extreme temperatures.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Created: Mon, 16 Nov 2015, 20:50:17 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health