Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

Guo, Yuming, Li, Shanshan, Liu, De Li, Chen, Dong, Williams, Gail and Tong, Shilu (2015) Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities. Environmental Pollution, 208 66-73. doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2015.09.041


Author Guo, Yuming
Li, Shanshan
Liu, De Li
Chen, Dong
Williams, Gail
Tong, Shilu
Title Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities
Journal name Environmental Pollution   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0269-7491
1873-6424
Publication date 2015-10-21
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.envpol.2015.09.041
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 208
Start page 66
End page 73
Total pages 8
Place of publication Kidlington, Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Pergamon Press
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted.
Keyword Climate change
Mortality
Projection
Temperature
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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Created: Mon, 19 Oct 2015, 20:24:34 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health