Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

Finnegan, Seth, Anderson, Sean C., Harnik, Paul G., Simpson, Carl, Tittensor, Derek P., Byrnes, Jarrett E., Finkel, Zoe V., Lindberg, David R., Liow, Lee Hsiang, Lockwood, Rowan, Lotze, Heike K., McClain, Craig R., McGuire, Jenny L., O'Dea, Aaron and Pandolfi, John M. (2015) Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans. Science, 348 6234: 567-570. doi:10.1126/science.aaa6635

Author Finnegan, Seth
Anderson, Sean C.
Harnik, Paul G.
Simpson, Carl
Tittensor, Derek P.
Byrnes, Jarrett E.
Finkel, Zoe V.
Lindberg, David R.
Liow, Lee Hsiang
Lockwood, Rowan
Lotze, Heike K.
McClain, Craig R.
McGuire, Jenny L.
O'Dea, Aaron
Pandolfi, John M.
Title Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans
Journal name Science   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1095-9203
Publication date 2015-05-01
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1126/science.aaa6635
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 348
Issue 6234
Start page 567
End page 570
Total pages 4
Place of publication Washington, DC United States
Publisher American Association for the Advancement of Science
Language eng
Subject 1000 General
Abstract Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk—extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models—for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.
Keyword Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Grant ID EF-0905606
KI 806/7-1
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 29 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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