Temporal Variation in Heat-Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study

Gasparrini, Antonio, Guo, Yuming, Hashizume, Masahiro, Kinney, Patrick L., Petkova, Elisaveta, Lavigne, Eric, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Tobias, Aurelio, Leone, Michela, Tong, Shilu, Honda, Yasushi, Kim, Ho and Armstrong, Ben (2015) Temporal Variation in Heat-Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study. Environmental Health Perspectives, 123 11: 1200-1207. doi:10.1289/ehp.1409070

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Author Gasparrini, Antonio
Guo, Yuming
Hashizume, Masahiro
Kinney, Patrick L.
Petkova, Elisaveta
Lavigne, Eric
Zanobetti, Antonella
Schwartz, Joel
Tobias, Aurelio
Leone, Michela
Tong, Shilu
Honda, Yasushi
Kim, Ho
Armstrong, Ben
Title Temporal Variation in Heat-Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study
Journal name Environmental Health Perspectives   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0091-6765
Publication date 2015-05-01
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1289/ehp.1409070
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 123
Issue 11
Start page 1200
End page 1207
Total pages 31
Place of publication Research Triangle Park, NC United States
Publisher U.S. Department of Health and Human Services * National Institute of Environmental Health Science
Language eng
Subject 2739 Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
2307 Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Abstract Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.
Formatted abstract
Background: Recent investigations have reported a decline in the heat-related mortality risk during the last decades. However, these studies are frequently based on modelling approaches that do not fully characterize the complex temperature-mortality relationship, and are limited to single cities or countries.

Objectives: To assess the temporal variation in heat-mortality associations in a multi-country data set using flexible modelling techniques.

Methods: We collected data for 272 locations in Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Spain, UK and USA, with a total 20,203,690 deaths occurring in summer months between 1985 and 2012. The analysis was based on two-stage time series models. The temporal variation in heat-mortality relationships was estimated in each location with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models, expressed through an interaction between the transformed temperature variables and time. The estimates were pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis.

Results: Mortality risk due to heat appeared to decrease over time in several countries, with relative risks associated to high temperatures significantly lower in 2006 compared with 1993 in the USA, Japan, and Spain, and a non-significant decrease in Canada. Temporal changes are difficult to assess in Australia and South Korea due to low statistical power, while we found little evidence of variation in the UK. In the USA, the risk seems to be completely abated in 2006 for summer temperatures below their 99th percentile, but some significant excess persists for higher temperatures in all the countries.

Conclusions: We estimated a statistically significant decrease in the RR for heat-related mortality in 2006 compared to 1993 in the majority of countries included in the analysis.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Grant ID K21004000001-10A0500-00710
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Created: Thu, 14 May 2015, 21:43:55 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health