A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R. and Chhetri, N. (2014) A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4 4: 287-291. doi:10.1038/nclimate2153

Author Challinor, A. J.
Watson, J.
Lobell, D. B.
Howden, S. M.
Smith, D. R.
Chhetri, N.
Title A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
Journal name Nature Climate Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1758-6798
Publication date 2014-03-16
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/nclimate2153
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 4
Issue 4
Start page 287
End page 291
Total pages 5
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Language eng
Abstract Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7-15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Non HERDC
Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 260 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Tue, 10 Mar 2015, 21:20:25 EST by James Watson on behalf of Centre for Crop Science