The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia

Wilson, Tom (2015) The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia. Australian Geographer, 46 1: 91-111. doi:10.1080/00049182.2014.986786

Author Wilson, Tom
Title The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia
Journal name Australian Geographer   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1465-3311
Publication date 2015-01-22
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1080/00049182.2014.986786
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 46
Issue 1
Start page 91
End page 111
Total pages 21
Place of publication Melbourne, Australia
Publisher Routledge
Language eng
Subject 3305 Geography, Planning and Development
1904 Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract Concern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction.
Keyword Population projections
Remoteness Areas
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
Official 2016 Collection
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 5 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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