Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New South Wales, Australia

Wainwright, D. J., Ranasinghe, R., Callaghan, D. P., Woodroffe, C. D., Jongejan, R., Dougherty, A. J., Rogers, K. and Cowell, P. J. (2015) Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New South Wales, Australia. Coastal Engineering, 96 92-99. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.11.009


Author Wainwright, D. J.
Ranasinghe, R.
Callaghan, D. P.
Woodroffe, C. D.
Jongejan, R.
Dougherty, A. J.
Rogers, K.
Cowell, P. J.
Title Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New South Wales, Australia
Journal name Coastal Engineering   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0378-3839
1872-7379
Publication date 2015-02-01
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.11.009
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 96
Start page 92
End page 99
Total pages 8
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier
Language eng
Subject 2305 Environmental Engineering
2212 Ocean Engineering
Abstract Traditional methods for assessing coastal hazards have not typically incorporated a rigorous treatment of uncertainty. Such treatment is necessary to enable risk assessments which are now required by emerging risk based coastal zone management/planning frameworks. While unresolved issues remain, relating to the availability of sufficient data for comprehensive uncertainty assessments, this will hopefully improve in coming decades. Here, we present a modelling framework which integrates geological, engineering and economic approaches for assessing the climate change driven economic risk to coastal developments. The framework incorporates means for combining results from models that focus on the decadal to century time scales at which coasts evolve, and those that focus on the short term and seasonal time scales (storm bite and recovery). This paper demonstrates the functionality of the framework in deriving probabilistic coastal hazard lines and their subsequent use to establish an economically optimal setback line for development at a case study site; the Narrabeen–Collaroy embayment in Sydney, New South Wales.
Keyword Coastal hazard
Probabilistic modelling
Development setback
Economic modelling
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online ahead of print 18 Dec 2014

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Civil Engineering Publications
Official 2015 Collection
 
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