Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs

Madaniyazi, Lina, Guo, Yuming, Yu, Weiwei and Tong, Shilu (2015) Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs. Environment International, 75 21-32. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2014.10.018

Attached Files (Some files may be inaccessible until you login with your UQ eSpace credentials)
Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads

Author Madaniyazi, Lina
Guo, Yuming
Yu, Weiwei
Tong, Shilu
Title Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs
Journal name Environment International   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0160-4120
1873-6750
Publication date 2015-02-01
Year available 2014
Sub-type Critical review of research, literature review, critical commentary
DOI 10.1016/j.envint.2014.10.018
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 75
Start page 21
End page 32
Total pages 12
Place of publication Kidlington, Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Pergamon Press
Language eng
Subject 2300 Environmental Science
Abstract Background: Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM-/O-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. Methods: A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Discussion: Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM and O may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM may dominate compared to those caused by O, but projection studies of PM-related mortality are fewer than those of O-related mortality.There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Conclusions: Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM and O on mortality in the context of climate change.
Formatted abstract
Background: Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties.

Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty.

Methods: A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013.

Discussion: Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced.

Conclusions: Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change.
Keyword Projection
Air pollutants
Mortality
Climate change
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Critical review of research, literature review, critical commentary
Collections: Official 2015 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
Available Versions of this Record
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 9 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 9 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 25 Nov 2014, 19:45:51 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health