Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Murray, Christopher J. L., Ortblad, Katrina F., Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S., Wolock, Timothy M., Roberts, D. Allen, Dansereau, Emily A., Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M., Brown, Jonathan C., Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C., Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A., Heuton, Kyle R., Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E., Fleming, Thomas D., Flaxman, Abraham D., Phillips, Bryan K., Johnson, Elizabeth K., Coggeshall, Megan S., Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P., Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsene Kouablan, Adsuar, Jose C., Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J., Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I., Alcala-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J., Allen, Peter J., Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A., Amare, Azmeraw T., Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlov, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J., Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S., Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L., Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Abdulhak, Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D., Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catala-Lopez†, Ferran, Chadha, Vineet K., Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J., Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Pozo-Cruz, Borja Del, Deribe, Kebede, Jarlais, Don C. Des, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dilmen, Ugur, Ding, Eric L., Driscoll, Tim R., Durrani, Adnan M., Ellenbogen, Richard G., Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Fra.Paleo, Urbano, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Ginaw, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser, Elizabeth L., Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N., Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J., Harb, Hilda L., Haro, Josep Maria, Gupta, Rahul, Hedayati, Mohammad T., Pi, Ileana B. Heredia, Hoek, Hans W., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian G., Huang, John J., Iburg, Kim M., Idrisov, Bulat T., Innos, Kaire, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N., Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B., Juel†, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Kankindi, Ida, Karam, Nadim E., Karch, Andre, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S., Kemp, Andrew H., Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M., Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, S., Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kulkarni, Veena S., Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B., Kumar, G. Anil, Kwan, Gene F., Lai, Taavi, Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C., Larson, Heidi J., Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, De Lima, Graca Maria Ferreira, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E., Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K., Lotufo, Paulo A., Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Maclachlan, Jennifer H., Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Wagner, Marcenes, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Masci, Joseph R., Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Mayosi, Bongani M., Mazorodze, Tasara T., Mckay, Abigail Cecilia, Meaney, Peter A., Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Ted R Miller†,, Mills, Edward J., Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad†,, Mokdad, Ali H., Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R ., Mori, Rintaro, Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murthy, Kinnari S., Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S., Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nash, Denis, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G., Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R., Ng, Marie, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F., Nowaseb, Vincent, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O., Omer, Saad B., Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D., Papachristou, Christina, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B., Paul, Vinod K., Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M., Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quezada, Amado D., Quistberg, D. Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M., Razavi, Homie, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Samonte, Genesis May J., Sawhney, Monika, Schneider, Ione J. C., Schwebel, David C., Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Servan-Mori, Edson E., Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Shivakoti, Rupak, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H., Silva, Andrea P., Simard, Edgar P., Singh, Jasvinder A., Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J., Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Towbin, Jeffrey A., Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X., Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Uchendu, Uche S., Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Uzun, Selen Begum, Vallely, Andrew J., Vasankari, Tommi J., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, Francesco S., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T., Wang, Linhong, Wang, XiaoRong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Westerman, Ronny, White, Richard A., Wilkinson, James D., Williams, Thomas Neil, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q., Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C., Yano, Yuichiro, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D. and Vos, Theo (2014) Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.. Lancet, 384 9947: 1005-1070. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8


Author Murray, Christopher J. L.
Ortblad, Katrina F.
Guinovart, Caterina
Lim, Stephen S.
Wolock, Timothy M.
Roberts, D. Allen
Dansereau, Emily A.
Graetz, Nicholas
Barber, Ryan M.
Brown, Jonathan C.
Wang, Haidong
Duber, Herbert C.
Naghavi, Mohsen
Dicker, Daniel
Dandona, Lalit
Salomon, Joshua A.
Heuton, Kyle R.
Foreman, Kyle
Phillips, David E.
Fleming, Thomas D.
Flaxman, Abraham D.
Phillips, Bryan K.
Johnson, Elizabeth K.
Coggeshall, Megan S.
Abd-Allah, Foad
Abera, Semaw Ferede
Abraham, Jerry P.
Abubakar, Ibrahim
Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me
Achoki, Tom
Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi
Adou, Arsene Kouablan
Adsuar, Jose C.
Agardh, Emilie Elisabet
Akena, Dickens
Al Kahbouri, Mazin J.
Alasfoor, Deena
Albittar, Mohammed I.
Alcala-Cerra, Gabriel
Alegretti, Miguel Angel
Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw
Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael
Alhabib, Samia
Ali, Raghib
Alla, Francois
Allen, Peter J.
Allen, Peter J.
Alsharif, Ubai
Alvarez, Elena
Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
Amankwaa, Adansi A.
Amare, Azmeraw T.
Amini, Hassan
Ammar, Walid
Anderson, Benjamin O.
Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.
Anwari, Palwasha
Arnlov, Johan
Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic
Artaman, Ali
Asghar, Rana J.
Assadi, Reza
Atkins, Lydia S.
Badawi, Alaa
Balakrishnan, Kalpana
Banerjee, Amitava
Basu, Sanjay
Beardsley, Justin
Bekele, Tolesa
Bell, Michelle L.
Bernabe, Eduardo
Beyene, Tariku Jibat
Bhala, Neeraj
Bhalla, Ashish
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
Abdulhak, Bin
Binagwaho, Agnes
Blore, Jed D.
Basara, Berrak Bora
Bose, Dipan
Brainin, Michael
Breitborde, Nicholas
Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.
Catala-Lopez†, Ferran
Chadha, Vineet K.
Chang, Jung-Chen
Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia
Chuang, Ting-Wu
Colomar, Mercedes
Cooper, Leslie Trumbull
Cooper, Cyrus
Courville, Karen J.
Cowie, Benjamin C.
Criqui, Michael H.
Dandona, Rakhi
Dayama, Anand
De Leo, Diego
Degenhardt, Louisa
Pozo-Cruz, Borja Del
Deribe, Kebede
Jarlais, Don C. Des
Dessalegn, Muluken
Dharmaratne, Samath D
Dilmen, Ugur
Ding, Eric L.
Driscoll, Tim R.
Durrani, Adnan M.
Ellenbogen, Richard G.
Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
Esteghamati, Alireza
Faraon, Emerito Jose A.
Farzadfar, Farshad
Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
Fijabi, Daniel Obadare
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.
Fra.Paleo, Urbano
Gaffikin, Lynne
Gamkrelidze, Amiran
Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho
Geleijnse, Johanna M.
Gessner, Bradford D.
Gibney, Katherine B.
Ginaw, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed
Glaser, Elizabeth L.
Gona, Philimon
Goto, Atsushi
Gouda, Hebe N.
Gugnani, Harish Chander
Gupta, Rajeev
Gupta, Rahul
Hafezi-Nejad, Nima
Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
Hammami, Mouhanad
Hankey, Graeme J.
Harb, Hilda L.
Haro, Josep Maria
Gupta, Rahul
Hedayati, Mohammad T.
Pi, Ileana B. Heredia
Hoek, Hans W.
Hornberger, John C.
Hosgood, H. Dean
Hotez, Peter J.
Hoy, Damian G.
Huang, John J.
Iburg, Kim M.
Idrisov, Bulat T.
Innos, Kaire
Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
Jeemon, Panniyammakal
Jeemon, Panniyammakal
Jensen, Paul N.
Jha, Vivekanand
Jiang, Guohong
Jonas, Jost B.
Juel†, Knud
Kan, Haidong
Kankindi, Ida
Karam, Nadim E.
Karch, Andre
Karema, Corine Kakizi
Kaul, Anil
Kawakami, Norito
Kazi, Dhruv S.
Kemp, Andrew H.
Kengne, Andre Pascal
Keren, Andre
Kereselidze, Maia
Khader, Yousef Saleh
Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan
Khan, Ejaz Ahmed
Khang, Young-Ho
Khonelidze, Irma
Kinfu, Yohannes
Kinge, Jonas M.
Knibbs, Luke
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Kosen, S.
Defo, Barthelemy Kuate
Kulkarni, Veena S.
Kulkarni, Chanda
Kumar, Kaushalendra
Kumar, Ravi B.
Kumar, G. Anil
Kwan, Gene F.
Lai, Taavi
Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana
Lam, Hilton
Lan, Qing
Lansingh, Van C.
Larson, Heidi J.
Larsson, Anders
Lee, Jong-Tae
Leigh, James
Leinsalu, Mall
Leung, Ricky
Li, Yichong
Li, Yongmei
De Lima, Graca Maria Ferreira
Lin, Hsien-Ho
Lipshultz, Steven E.
Liu, Shiwei
Liu, Yang
Lloyd, Belinda K.
Lotufo, Paulo A.
Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro
Maclachlan, Jennifer H.
Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos
Majdan, Marek
Mapoma, Christopher Chabila
Wagner, Marcenes
Marzan, Melvin Barrientos
Masci, Joseph R.
Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq
Mason-Jones, Amanda J.
Mayosi, Bongani M.
Mazorodze, Tasara T.
Mckay, Abigail Cecilia
Meaney, Peter A.
Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola
Melaku, Yohannes Adama
Memish, Ziad A.
Mendoza, Walter
Ted R Miller†,
Mills, Edward J.
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad†,
Mokdad, Ali H.
Mola, Glen Liddell
Monasta, Lorenzo
Montico, Marcella
Moore, Ami R .
Mori, Rintaro
Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora
Mukaigawara, Mitsuru
Murthy, Kinnari S.
Naheed, Aliya
Naidoo, Kovin S.
Naldi, Luigi
Nangia, Vinay
Narayan, K M Venkat
Nash, Denis
Nejjari, Chakib
Nelson, Robert G.
Neupane, Sudan Prasad
Newton, Charles R.
Ng, Marie
Nisar, Muhammad Imran
Nolte, Sandra
Norheim, Ole F.
Nowaseb, Vincent
Nyakarahuka, Luke
Oh, In-Hwan
Ohkubo, Takayoshi
Olusanya, Bolajoko O.
Omer, Saad B.
Opio, John Nelson
Orisakwe, Orish Ebere
Pandian, Jeyaraj D.
Papachristou, Christina
Caicedo, Angel J Paternina
Patten, Scott B.
Paul, Vinod K.
Pavlin, Boris Igor
Pearce, Neil
Pereira, David M.
Pervaiz, Aslam
Pesudovs, Konrad
Petzold, Max
Pourmalek, Farshad
Qato, Dima
Quezada, Amado D.
Quistberg, D. Alex
Rafay, Anwar
Rahimi, Kazem
Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
Rahman, Sajjad Ur
Raju, Murugesan
Rana, Saleem M.
Razavi, Homie
Reilly, Robert Quentin
Remuzzi, Giuseppe
Richardus, Jan Hendrik
Ronfani, Luca
Roy, Nobhojit
Sabin, Nsanzimana
Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya
Sahraian, Mohammad Ali
Samonte, Genesis May J.
Sawhney, Monika
Schneider, Ione J. C.
Schwebel, David C.
Seedat, Soraya
Sepanlou, Sadaf G.
Servan-Mori, Edson E.
Sheikhbahaei, Sara
Shibuya, Kenji
Shin, Hwashin Hyun
Shiue, Ivy
Shivakoti, Rupak
Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
Silberberg, Donald H.
Silva, Andrea P.
Simard, Edgar P.
Singh, Jasvinder A.
Skirbekk, Vegard
Sliwa, Karen
Soneji, Samir
Soshnikov, Sergey S.
Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.
Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi
Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
Swaminathan, Soumya
Sykes, Bryan L.
Tabb, Karen M.
Talongwa, Roberto Tchio
Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah
Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman
Thomson, Alan J.
Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.
Towbin, Jeffrey A.
Traebert, Jefferson
Tran, Bach X.
Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala
Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis
Uchendu, Uche S.
Ukwaja, Kingsley N.
Uzun, Selen Begum
Vallely, Andrew J.
Vasankari, Tommi J.
Venketasubramanian, N.
Violante, Francesco S.
Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich
Vollset, Stein Emil
Waller, Stephen
Wallin, Mitchell T.
Wang, Linhong
Wang, XiaoRong
Wang, Yanping
Weichenthal, Scott
Weiderpass, Elisabete
Weintraub, Robert G.
Westerman, Ronny
White, Richard A.
Wilkinson, James D.
Williams, Thomas Neil
Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret
Wong, John Q.
Xu, Gelin
Yang, Yang C.
Yano, Yuichiro
Yentur, Gokalp Kadri
Yip, Paul
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Yoon, Seok-Jun
Younis, Mustafa
Yu, Chuanhua
Jin, Kim Yun
Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed
Zhao, Yong
Zheng, Yingfeng
Zhou, Maigeng
Zhu, Jun
Zou, Xiao Nong
Lopez, Alan D.
Vos, Theo
Title Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
Journal name Lancet   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0140-6736
1474-547X
Publication date 2014-09-13
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 384
Issue 9947
Start page 1005
End page 1070
Total pages 66
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher The Lancet Publishing Group
Language eng
Subject 2700 Medicine
Abstract The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.
Formatted abstract
Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1.8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1.7 million to 2.1 million), 29.2 million prevalent HIV cases (28.1 to 31.7), and 1.3 million HIV deaths (1.3 to 1.5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1.7 million deaths (1.6 million to 1.9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19.1 million life-years (16.6 million to 21.5 million) have been saved, 70.3% (65.4 to 76.1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.5 million (7.4 million to 7.7 million), prevalence was 11.9 million (11.6 million to 12.2 million), and number of deaths was 1.4 million (1.3 million to 1.5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.1 million (6.9 million to 7.3 million), prevalence was 11.2 million (10.8 million to 11.6 million), and number of deaths was 1.3 million (1.2 million to 1.4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64.0% of cases (63.6 to 64.3) and 64.7% of deaths (60.8 to 70.3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1.2 million deaths (1.1 million to 1.4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31.5% (15.7 to 44.1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18.7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
Keyword Middle Income Countries
Female sex workers
Plasmodium falciparum malaria
Active Antiretroviral Therapy
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
Severe febrile illness
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Grant ID 091758
095066
U19 HS021110
U01 AG018947
U34 AR062891
G1100684
099876
MC_UP_A620_1014
UL1 TR001086
DA R01 003574
U10 CA149950
CDF-2013-06-012
MC_UU_12011/1
P50 AR060772
KL2TR001088
KL2 TR001088
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2015 Collection
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Created: Sat, 04 Oct 2014, 01:15:30 EST by Hebe Gouda on behalf of School of Public Health