Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation

Guo, Yuming, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben, Li, Shanshan, Tawatsupa, Benjawan, Tobias, Aurelio, Lavigne, Eric, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Leone, Michela, Pan, Xiaochuan, Tong, Shilu, Tian, Linwei, Kim, Ho, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Guo, Yue-Liang Leon, Wu, Chang-Fu, Punnasiri, Kornwipa, Yi, Seung-Muk, Michelozzi, Paola, Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario and Williams, Gail (2014) Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation. Epidemiology, 25 6: 781-789. doi:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165

Author Guo, Yuming
Gasparrini, Antonio
Armstrong, Ben
Li, Shanshan
Tawatsupa, Benjawan
Tobias, Aurelio
Lavigne, Eric
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline
Leone, Michela
Pan, Xiaochuan
Tong, Shilu
Tian, Linwei
Kim, Ho
Hashizume, Masahiro
Honda, Yasushi
Guo, Yue-Liang Leon
Wu, Chang-Fu
Punnasiri, Kornwipa
Yi, Seung-Muk
Michelozzi, Paola
Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
Williams, Gail
Title Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation
Journal name Epidemiology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1044-3983
Publication date 2014-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165
Volume 25
Issue 6
Start page 781
End page 789
Total pages 9
Place of publication Philadelphia, PA, United States
Publisher Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Collection year 2015
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously.

Methods: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country.

Results: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long.

Conclusions: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2015 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Created: Thu, 04 Sep 2014, 20:14:17 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health