Interdependency of tropical marine ecosystems in response to climate change

Saunders, Megan I., Leon, Javier X., Callaghan, David P., Roelfsema, Chris M., Hamylton, Sarah, Brown, Christopher J., Baldock, Tom, Golshani, Aliasghar, Phinn, Stuart R., Lovelock, Catherine E., Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, Woodroffe, Colin D. and Mumby, Peter J. (2014) Interdependency of tropical marine ecosystems in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4 8: 724-729. doi:10.1038/nclimate2274

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Author Saunders, Megan I.
Leon, Javier X.
Callaghan, David P.
Roelfsema, Chris M.
Hamylton, Sarah
Brown, Christopher J.
Baldock, Tom
Golshani, Aliasghar
Phinn, Stuart R.
Lovelock, Catherine E.
Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
Woodroffe, Colin D.
Mumby, Peter J.
Title Interdependency of tropical marine ecosystems in response to climate change
Journal name Nature Climate Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1758-678X
Publication date 2014-01-01
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/nclimate2274
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 4
Issue 8
Start page 724
End page 729
Total pages 6
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Language eng
Subject 2301 Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
3301 Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract Ecosystems are linked within landscapes by the physical and biological processes they mediate. In such connected landscapes, the response of one ecosystem to climate change could have profound consequences for neighbouring systems. Here, we report the first quantitative predictions of interdependencies between ecosystems in response to climate change. In shallow tropical marine ecosystems, coral reefs shelter lagoons from incoming waves, allowing seagrass meadows to thrive. Deepening water over coral reefs from sea-level rise results in larger, more energetic waves traversing the reef into the lagoon, potentially generating hostile conditions for seagrass. However, growth of coral reef such that the relative water depth is maintained could mitigate negative effects of sea-level rise on seagrass. Parameterizing physical and biological models for Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we find negative effects of sea-level rise on seagrass before the middle of this century given reasonable rates of reef growth. Rates of vertical carbonate accretion typical of modern reef flats (up to 3 mm yr ̂'1) will probably be insufficient to maintain suitable conditions for reef lagoon seagrass under moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by 2100. Accounting for interdependencies in ecosystem responses to climate change is challenging, but failure to do so results in inaccurate predictions of habitat extent in the future.
Keyword Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Grant ID FS100100024
Institutional Status UQ

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