Modelling changes in species' abundance in response to projected climate change

Renwick, Anna R., Massimino, Dario, Newson, Stuart E., Chamberlain, Dan E., Pearce-Higgins, James W. and Johnston, Alison (2012) Modelling changes in species' abundance in response to projected climate change. Diversity and Distributions, 18 2: 121-132. doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00827.x


Author Renwick, Anna R.
Massimino, Dario
Newson, Stuart E.
Chamberlain, Dan E.
Pearce-Higgins, James W.
Johnston, Alison
Title Modelling changes in species' abundance in response to projected climate change
Journal name Diversity and Distributions   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1366-9516
1472-4642
Publication date 2012-01-01
Year available 2012
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00827.x
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 18
Issue 2
Start page 121
End page 132
Total pages 12
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Language eng
Subject 1105 Dentistry
Abstract Aim Existing climate envelope models give an indication of broad scale shifts in distribution, but do not specifically provide information on likely future population changes useful for conservation prioritization and planning. We demonstrate how these techniques can be developed to model likely future changes in absolute density and population size as a result of climate change. Location Great Britain. Methods Generalized linear models were used to model breeding densities of two northerly- and two southerly-distributed bird species as a function of climate and land use. Models were built using count data from extensive national bird monitoring data and incorporated detectability to estimate absolute abundance. Projections of likely future changes in the distribution and abundance of these species were made by applying these models to projections of future climate change under two emissions scenarios. Results Models described current spatial variation in abundance for three of the four species and produced modelled current estimates of national populations that were similar to previously published estimates for all species. Climate change was projected to result in national population declines in the two northerly-distributed species, with declines for Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata projected to be particularly severe. Conversely, the abundances of the two southerly distributed species were projected to increase nationally. Projected maps of future abundance may be used to identify priority areas for the future conservation of each species. Main conclusions The analytical methods provide a framework to make projections of impacts of climate change on species abundance, rather than simply projected range changes. Outputs may be summarized at any spatial scale, providing information to inform future conservation planning at national, regional and local scales. Results suggest that as a consequence of climate change, northerly distributed bird species in Great Britain are likely to become an increasingly high conservation priority within the UK.
Keyword Breeding birds
Climate change
Climate envelope model
Conservation
Global warming
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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