New approaches to simulating the complex interaction effects of multiple human impacts on the marine environment

Griffith, Gary P. and Fulton, Elizabeth A. (2014) New approaches to simulating the complex interaction effects of multiple human impacts on the marine environment. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71 4: 764-774. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst196


Author Griffith, Gary P.
Fulton, Elizabeth A.
Title New approaches to simulating the complex interaction effects of multiple human impacts on the marine environment
Journal name ICES Journal of Marine Science   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1095-9289
1054-3139
Publication date 2014-05-01
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1093/icesjms/fst196
Volume 71
Issue 4
Start page 764
End page 774
Total pages 11
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Oxford University Press
Language eng
Abstract The interplay of anthropogenic effects presents significant challenges to modelling and managing marine resources. The increasing awareness of the complexity of the interaction of human impacts has led to a demand for end-to-end (E2E) models that attempt to include all major processes in a single framework. These whole-of-system models are potentially very useful as numerical laboratories to explore the potential spectrum of responses from the interplay of anthropogenic effects. However, despite their limitations and early stage of development, the output of E2E models is under increasing social pressure to provide simple answers to highly complex problems. Here, we suggest some approaches that can be included in E2E models for considering the potential effects of complex interactions on community and ecosystem services. We show how assumptions and parameterizations made in existing E2E models can be altered to allow processes to shift with the dynamic response to both natural and human drivers. Alternative ways for interpreting complex model output, non-linearity, handling uncertainty, and how to include multispecies interaction effects within a framework of ecosystem-based management are suggested. We point out parts of the marine system that have been neglected in model development, but now should be included to understand interaction effects from multiple anthropogenic stressors. The E2E model framework also needs to be further expanded from an often-skewed focus on ecological systems to a more even-handed treatment of socio-ecological systems, including cultural aspects. Future progress in E2E models will require an interdisciplinary framework involving both qualitative and quantitative approaches, closer cooperation between empiricists and modellers, and the development of consistent terminology.
Keyword Ecosystem-based management
End-to-end ecosystem models
Human impacts
Interactions
Non-linear dynamics
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published May/June 2014

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Mathematics and Physics
Official 2015 Collection
 
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