Metapopulation dynamics of rabies and the efficacy of vaccination

Beyer, Hawthorne L., Hampson, Katie, Lembo, Tiziana, Cleaveland, Sarah, Kaare, Magai and Haydon, Daniel T. (2011) Metapopulation dynamics of rabies and the efficacy of vaccination. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 278 1715: 2182-2190. doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.2312

Author Beyer, Hawthorne L.
Hampson, Katie
Lembo, Tiziana
Cleaveland, Sarah
Kaare, Magai
Haydon, Daniel T.
Title Metapopulation dynamics of rabies and the efficacy of vaccination
Journal name Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0962-8452
Publication date 2011-07-22
Year available 2011
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1098/rspb.2010.2312
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 278
Issue 1715
Start page 2182
End page 2190
Total pages 9
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher The Royal Society Publishing
Language eng
Subject 1100 Agricultural and Biological Sciences
1300 Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
2300 Environmental Science
2400 Immunology and Microbiology
2700 Medicine
Abstract Spatial structure in a host population results in heterogeneity in transmission dynamics. We used a Bayesian framework to evaluate competing metapopulation models of rabies transmission among domestic dog populations in villages in Tanzania. A proximate indicator of disease, medical records of animalbite injuries, is used to infer the occurrence (presence/absence) of suspected rabid dog cases in one month intervals. State-space models were used to explore the implications of different levels of reporting probability on model parameter estimates. We find evidence for a relatively high rate of infection of these populations from neighbouring districts or from other species distributed throughout the study area, rather than from adjacent wildlife protected areas, suggesting wildlife is unlikely to be implicated in the long-term persistence of rabies. Stochastic simulation of our highest ranked models in vaccinated and hypothetical unvaccinated populations indicated that pulsed vaccination campaigns occurring from 2002 to 2007 reduced rabies occurrence by 57.3 per cent in vaccinated villages in the 1 year following each pulse, and that a similar regional campaign would deliver an 80.9 per cent reduction in occurrence. This work demonstrates how a relatively coarse, proximate sentinel of rabies infection is useful for making inferences about spatial disease dynamics and the efficacy of control measures.
Keyword Patch occupancy
Spatial transmission
State Space Model
Vaccination efficacy
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Biological Sciences Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 20 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Sat, 31 May 2014, 02:07:52 EST by Hawthorne Beyer on behalf of School of Biological Sciences