Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species' distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy

del Barrio, G., Harrison, P. A., Berry, P. M., Butt, N., Sanjuan, M. E., Pearson, R. G. and Dawson, T. (2006) Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species' distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy. Environmental Science and Policy, 9 2: 129-147. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.005


Author del Barrio, G.
Harrison, P. A.
Berry, P. M.
Butt, N.
Sanjuan, M. E.
Pearson, R. G.
Dawson, T.
Title Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species' distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy
Journal name Environmental Science and Policy   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1462-9011
1873-6416
Publication date 2006-04-01
Year available 2006
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.005
Volume 9
Issue 2
Start page 129
End page 147
Total pages 19
Place of publication New York, NY, United States
Publisher Elsevier
Language eng
Abstract Many studies have predicted the potential impacts of climate change on species' distributions at large spatial scales, yet the role of more local-scale effects remains poorly explored. Addressing more localised impacts requires that new integrated modelling approaches are developed to address fine-scale processes including species' dispersal and local connectivity. Here we integrate four models (a continental scale bioclimatic envelope model, a regional scale bioclimate and land use suitability model, a dispersal model, and a connectivity model) in a scale-dependent hierarchical framework. The approach has been used to analyse the fine scale impacts of climate change on species' distributions within two contrasting case study regions located in East Anglia (UK) and Almeria (Spain). Eight and six species respectively were used to test our approach under three climate change scenarios. Despite the uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach, our analyses suggest two general conclusions: (i) climate change involves the development of transient conditions and fragmentation within the core of species distributions; (ii) climate change would favour the opening of gaps within the current vegetation zones, rather than a simple zonal shift of them. Dynamic and integrated conservation policies are required, that take account of the current and potential future spatial arrangement of species and their habitats, to assist species to respond to future environmental change.
Keyword Species' distributions
Climate change
Land use
Connectivity
Fragmentation
Scale
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Global Change Institute Publications
Non HERDC
 
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 48 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Thu, 29 May 2014, 01:42:22 EST by Nathalie Butt on behalf of Global Change Institute