Temperature and malaria trends in highland East Africa

Stern, David I., Gething, Peter W., Kabaria, Caroline W., Temperley, William H, Noor, Abdisalan M., Okiro, Emelda A., Dennis, G. Dennis, Snow, Robert W. and Hay, Simon I. (2011) Temperature and malaria trends in highland East Africa. PLoS One, 6 9: . doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0024524


Author Stern, David I.
Gething, Peter W.
Kabaria, Caroline W.
Temperley, William H
Noor, Abdisalan M.
Okiro, Emelda A.
Dennis, G. Dennis
Snow, Robert W.
Hay, Simon I.
Title Temperature and malaria trends in highland East Africa
Journal name PLoS One   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1932-6203
Publication date 2011-09-15
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0024524
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 6
Issue 9
Total pages 9
Place of publication San Francisco, United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Language eng
Subject 1100 Agricultural and Biological Sciences
1300 Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
2700 Medicine
Abstract There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit database (CRU TS) for several relevant locations. We find significant trends in the data extracted from newer editions of the database but not in the older version for periods ending in 1996. The trends in the newer data are even more significant when post-1996 data are added to the samples. We also test for trends in the data from the Kericho meteorological station prepared by Omumbo et al. We find no significant trend in the 1979-1995 period but a highly significant trend in the full 1979-2009 sample. However, although the malaria cases observed at Kericho, Kenya rose during a period of resurgent epidemics (1994-2002) they have since returned to a low level. A large assembly of parasite rate surveys from the region, stratified by altitude, show that this decrease in malaria prevalence is not limited to Kericho.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ
Additional Notes Article e24524.

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Public Health Publications
 
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