Modelling the incidence and mortality of psychotic disorders: data from the second Australian national survey of psychosis

Saha, Sukanta, Whiteford, Harvey and McGrath, John (2014) Modelling the incidence and mortality of psychotic disorders: data from the second Australian national survey of psychosis. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 48 4: 352-359. doi:10.1177/0004867413513341


Author Saha, Sukanta
Whiteford, Harvey
McGrath, John
Title Modelling the incidence and mortality of psychotic disorders: data from the second Australian national survey of psychosis
Journal name Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0004-8674
1440-1614
Publication date 2014-04-01
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1177/0004867413513341
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 48
Issue 4
Start page 352
End page 359
Total pages 8
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Sage
Language eng
Subject 2738 Psychiatry and Mental health
Abstract Objectives:
Formatted abstract
Objectives: The aim of this study was to model estimates related to (a) the incidence of psychotic disorders and (b) the
mortality associated with these disorders based on a large, population-based prevalence study.

Methods: Data were drawn from the second national survey of adults with psychotic disorders conducted in seven
Australian catchment areas during March to December 2010. To generate incidence rate estimates, we identified recent
onset cases recruited as part of the prevalence study and then imputed population-based incidence rates using a set of
conservative assumptions. Similarly, for mortality rates, we identified individuals who had died after being identified as
‘screen-positive’ for psychosis, but prior to full clinical assessment. Using a set of conservative assumptions, we then used
these estimates to infer population-based mortality rates.

Results: Based on our models, we estimated that the incidence rate for psychotic disorders was 28 cases per 100,000
population. The rate estimates were significantly higher in males than females, with an overall male:female ratio of 1.57:1.
Incidence rate estimates peaked in the youngest age group (18–24 years). The adjusted mortality rate estimated during
the whole period of observation was 12.5 per 1000 persons, with a standardised mortality ratio of 5.5.

Conclusions: Using treated prevalence data and observed deaths with appropriate algorithms, we were able to impute
incidence and mortality rates for psychotic disorders consistent with the published literature. While the second national
survey of psychotic disorders was not designed to identify mortality, our estimates provide a stark reminder of the
increased mortality associated with these disorders.
Keyword Incidence
Standardised mortality ratio
Schizophrenia
Prevalence
Psychosis
Mortality
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Queensland Brain Institute Publications
Official 2014 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
School of Medicine Publications
 
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