Estimating cytomegalovirus growth rates by using only a single point

Cromer, Deborah, Tey, Siok-Keen, Khanna, Rajiv and Davenport, Miles P. (2013) Estimating cytomegalovirus growth rates by using only a single point. Journal of Virology, 87 6: 3376-3381. doi:10.1128/JVI.02821-12

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Author Cromer, Deborah
Tey, Siok-Keen
Khanna, Rajiv
Davenport, Miles P.
Title Estimating cytomegalovirus growth rates by using only a single point
Journal name Journal of Virology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0022-538X
1070-6321
1098-5514
Publication date 2013-03-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1128/JVI.02821-12
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 87
Issue 6
Start page 3376
End page 3381
Total pages 6
Place of publication Washington, DC, United States
Publisher American Society for Microbiology
Language eng
Subject 2403 Immunology
2406 Virology
Abstract Calculation of pathogen growth rates is important in understanding the natural history of infection and effects of therapy. However, it is often difficult to estimate pathogen growth because patients are treated immediately upon the detection of infection, leaving only one nonzero untreated reading. Previous approaches have relied on the flawed assumption that pathogen loads just prior to detection are at the assay detection threshold. We have developed a novel method for estimating the pathogen growth rate from a single reading and investigated the initial growth of cytomegalovirus (CMV) in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) patients. We applied this approach to CMV viral loads measured at least weekly in 122 patients in the 3 months posttransplant. Viral growth rates were estimated by using a modeling approach that accounts for the viral load and the time since the last negative reading. Viral growth rates decreased rapidly within the first week, from 0.72/day (doubling time, 0.96 day) at the point of reactivation to 0.22/day (doubling time, 3.1 days) at 1 week. Results from this method correlated closely with a two-point regression analysis of a subset of 58 patients with detectable subthreshold viral loads immediately prior to overt reactivation. Patients with lymphocyte counts of ≥0.5 ×109/liter had significantly slower viral growth than patients with low lymphocyte counts (0.612/day versus 0.325/day, P<0.0001). Thus, our novel method of estimating pathogen growth rates reveals a rapid slowing of CMV growth during reactivation in HSCT patients and a significant impact of the lymphocyte count on CMV growth
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Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Medicine Publications
 
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Created: Sat, 22 Feb 2014, 22:02:12 EST by Matthew Lamb on behalf of School of Medicine