Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Wardrop, Nicola A., Barnett, Adrian G., Atkinson, Jo-An and Clements, Archie C. A. (2013) Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Malaria Journal, 12 1: 452.1-452.11. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-12-452


Author Wardrop, Nicola A.
Barnett, Adrian G.
Atkinson, Jo-An
Clements, Archie C. A.
Title Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China
Journal name Malaria Journal   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1475-2875
Publication date 2013-12-18
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1186/1475-2875-12-452
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 12
Issue 1
Start page 452.1
End page 452.11
Total pages 11
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher BioMed Central
Language eng
Subject 2405 Parasitology
2725 Infectious Diseases
Formatted abstract
Background:
Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite
development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been
detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An
understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control
and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature,
and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China.

Methods:
Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall
were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria.
Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the
lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence.

Results:
There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in
increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and
decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas.

Conclusions:
The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of
seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers
Keyword Distributed lag non-linear model
Generalized linear Poisson model
Plasmodium vivax malaria
Time series analysis
Weather variables
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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