How to weigh coastal hazard against economic consequence

Wainwright, David, Callaghan, David, Jongejan, Ruben, Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Cowell, Peter (2012). How to weigh coastal hazard against economic consequence. In: Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2012, ICCE 2012. 33rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2012, ICCE 2012, Santander, Cantabria, Spain, (). 1-6 July 2012. doi:10.9753/icce.v33.posters.31

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Author Wainwright, David
Callaghan, David
Jongejan, Ruben
Ranasinghe, Roshanka
Cowell, Peter
Title of paper How to weigh coastal hazard against economic consequence
Conference name 33rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2012, ICCE 2012
Conference location Santander, Cantabria, Spain
Conference dates 1-6 July 2012
Proceedings title Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2012, ICCE 2012
Journal name Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference
Place of Publication Reston, VA United States
Publisher American Society of Civil Engineers
Publication Year 2012
Year available 2012
Sub-type Poster
DOI 10.9753/icce.v33.posters.31
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
ISBN 9780989661119
ISSN 0161-3782
Total pages 1
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
It is well recognised that sea level change over the coming century will have an extraordinary economic impact on coastal communities. To overcome the uncertainty that still surrounds the mechanics of shoreline recession and stochastic forcing, landuse planning and management decisions will require a robust and quantitative risk-based approach. A new approach is presented, which has been evaluated using field measurements and assessed in economic terms. The paper  discusses a framework for coastal risk analysis which combines four main components 1) the effects of non-stationary
climate, including decade scale variability and anthropogenic change; 2) a full probabilistic assessment of incident wave and surge conditions; 3) determination of storm erosion extents; and 4) the economic impact of combined coastal erosion and recession. The framework is illustrated in Figure 1. The operation of this framework has been demonstrated, building upon previous work (Callaghan et al., 2008; Jongejan et al., 2011; Ranasinghe et al., 2011). The first three components relate to physical hazards. Using stochastic simulation, we quantify the ‘likelihood’ side of risk. That likelihood is typically represented by lines indicating a projected extreme landward shoreline condition and an associated quantitative probability. For the first time, the effects of non-stationary climate (e.g. sea level rise) have been included. This can be extended to include decadal scale climate variation effects such as beach rotation.  The fourth component requires the determination of values associated with land threatened by coastal erosion during the time frame being considered. We assign a spatially varying value density relationship. The exceedance probability of erosion is combined with the value density to calculate the expected value of damage at a given point in time. In a non-stationary climate scenario, the exceedance probabilities change with time, and this is also considered. Given a known rate of return on investment, the differentials in the rates of return (between coastal and inland property investments) are subsequently used to determine the efficient position of the setback line. The results are presented within a GIS framework to effectively feed into the coastal land use planning process. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to using real data (both physical and economic) for our subject site, Narrabeen Beach in Sydney.
Subjects 2205 Civil and Structural Engineering
2212 Ocean Engineering
1910 Oceanography
Keyword Coastal hazard
Economic consequences
Q-Index Code EX
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

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