Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus Transmission

Atkinson, Jo-An M., Williams, Gail M., Yakob, Laith, Clements, Archie C. A., Barnes, Tamsin S., McManus, Donald P., Yang, Yu Rong and Gray, Darren J. (2013) Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus Transmission. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7 8: e2386.1-e2386.9. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386

Author Atkinson, Jo-An M.
Williams, Gail M.
Yakob, Laith
Clements, Archie C. A.
Barnes, Tamsin S.
McManus, Donald P.
Yang, Yu Rong
Gray, Darren J.
Title Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus Transmission
Journal name PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1935-2735
Publication date 2013-08-01
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 7
Issue 8
Start page e2386.1
End page e2386.9
Total pages 10
Place of publication San Francisco, CA United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background:Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models.

Methodology/Principal Findings:
A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1) the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2) an age structure for animal hosts; 3) the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4) accounting for seasonality; 5) stochastic parameters; and 6) inclusion of spatial and risk structures.

This review discusses the conditions under which these mechanisms may be important for inclusion in models of Echinococcus transmission and proposes recommendations for the design of dynamic human models of transmission. Accounting for the dynamic behaviour of the Echinococcus parasites in humans will be key to predicting changes in the disease burden over time and to simulate control strategies that optimise public health impact.
Keyword Human Alveolar Echinococcosis
Multilocularis Transmission
Arvicola Terrestris
Population Dynamics
Infectious Diseases
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Grant ID APP1009539
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
Official 2014 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 7 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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