The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma continues to rise: analysis of period and birth cohort effects on recent trends

Thrift, A. P. and Whiteman, D. C. (2012) The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma continues to rise: analysis of period and birth cohort effects on recent trends. Annals of Oncology, 23 12: 3155-3162. doi:10.1093/annonc/mds181

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Author Thrift, A. P.
Whiteman, D. C.
Title The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma continues to rise: analysis of period and birth cohort effects on recent trends
Journal name Annals of Oncology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0923-7534
1569-8041
Publication date 2012-12-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1093/annonc/mds181
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 23
Issue 12
Start page 3155
End page 3162
Total pages 8
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Oxford University Press
Language eng
Subject 2720 Hematology
2730 Oncology
Abstract Background: During the past four decades, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased markedly in Western populations. Recent reports have suggested that the rate of increase has slowed or plateaued. Patients and methods: Using data from cancer registries in Australia, the United States and Sweden, we examined incidence trends for esophageal and gastric cardia tumors between 1984 and 2008 using joinpoint analyses and age- period-cohort models. Results: EAC incidence continues to undergo statistically significant annual increases in Australia and the United States, although the rate of increase has slowed. Among men, incidence increased annually by 2.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5% to 2.9%] between 1994 and 2008 in Australia and 1.5% (95% CI 0.2% to 2.8%) between 1998 and 2008 in the United States. EAC incidence among men remained unchanged in Sweden between 2001 and 2008 (P = 0.52). EAC incidence among women showed significant linear increases between 1984 and 2008. Age-period- cohort models suggested strong effects for both period and birth cohort on EAC incidence in Australia and the United States, and a strong period effect for Sweden. Conclusions: EAC incidence continues to increase in Australia and the United States. The continued increases, even among more recent birth cohorts, suggest that EAC incidence will continue to rise during coming decades.
Formatted abstract
Background: During the past four decades, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased markedly in Western populations. Recent reports have suggested that the rate of increase has slowed or plateaued.
Patients and methods: Using data from cancer registries in Australia, the United States and Sweden, we examined incidence trends for esophageal and gastric cardia tumors between 1984 and 2008 using joinpoint analyses and age- period-cohort models.
Results: EAC incidence continues to undergo statistically significant annual increases in Australia and the United States, although the rate of increase has slowed. Among men, incidence increased annually by 2.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5% to 2.9%] between 1994 and 2008 in Australia and 1.5% (95% CI 0.2% to 2.8%) between 1998 and 2008 in the United States. EAC incidence among men remained unchanged in Sweden between 2001 and 2008 (P = 0.52). EAC incidence among women showed significant linear increases between 1984 and 2008. Age-period- cohort models suggested strong effects for both period and birth cohort on EAC incidence in Australia and the United States, and a strong period effect for Sweden. Conclusions: EAC incidence continues to increase in Australia and the United States. The continued increases, even among more recent birth cohorts, suggest that EAC incidence will continue to rise during coming decades.
Keyword Age period cohort models
Annual percentage change
Epidemiology
Esophageal adenocarcinoma
Secular trends
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2013 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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