High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year: important information for heat-warning systems

Guo, Yuming, Barnett, Adrian G. and Tong, Shilu (2012) High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year: important information for heat-warning systems. Scientific Reports, 2 1-7. doi:10.1038/srep00830


Author Guo, Yuming
Barnett, Adrian G.
Tong, Shilu
Title High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year: important information for heat-warning systems
Journal name Scientific Reports   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 2045-2322
Publication date 2012-11-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/srep00830
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 2
Start page 1
End page 7
Total pages 7
Place of publication London, England, U.K.
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Language eng
Subject 1000 General
Abstract We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age ≥ 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a main effect due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an added effect due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.
Keyword United-States
Climate-Change
Winter-Mortality
Time-Course
Waves
Models
Impact
Cities
Inference
Summer
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2013 Collection
School of Medicine Publications
 
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Created: Tue, 18 Dec 2012, 01:12:33 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Medicine