Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements

Charlson, Fiona J., Steel, Zachary, Degenhardt, Louisa, Chey, Tien, Silove, Derrick, Marnane, Claire and Whiteford, Harvey A. (2012) Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements. PLoS One, 7 7 Article No. e40593: . doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040593


Author Charlson, Fiona J.
Steel, Zachary
Degenhardt, Louisa
Chey, Tien
Silove, Derrick
Marnane, Claire
Whiteford, Harvey A.
Title Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements
Journal name PLoS One   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1932-6203
Publication date 2012-07-01
Year available 2012
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0040593
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 7
Issue 7 Article No. e40593
Total pages 11
Place of publication San Francisco, CA United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Language eng
Abstract Background: Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC's).
Formatted abstract
Background: Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC's).
Methods:
Post-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC's.
Findings: Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5-16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0-26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600-182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000-344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions.
Discussion:
This is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya
Keyword Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)
Middle Income Countries
Traumatic Events
Epidemiology
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2013 Collection
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