Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Yu, Weiwei, Mengersen, Kerrie, Hu, Wenbiao, Guo, Yuming, Pan, Xiaochuan and Tong, Shilu (2011) Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories. Environmental Pollution, 159 7: 1789-1793. doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2011.03.039


Author Yu, Weiwei
Mengersen, Kerrie
Hu, Wenbiao
Guo, Yuming
Pan, Xiaochuan
Tong, Shilu
Title Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories
Journal name Environmental Pollution   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0269-7491
1873-6424
Publication date 2011-07-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.envpol.2011.03.039
Open Access Status
Volume 159
Issue 7
Start page 1789
End page 1793
Total pages 5
Place of publication East Park, Kidlington, Oxford, U.K.
Publisher Pergamon
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature–mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996–2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.

Highlights: ► A longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. ► The very old people were most vulnerable to temperature stress. ► The cardiovascular mortality was also sensitive to the temperature variation.
Keyword Cardiovascular deaths
Lag structure
Mortality
Temperature
The elderly
Case-crossover analysis
Heat-related deaths
15 European cities
United-states
Ambient-temperature
Air-pollution
Cardiovascular-disease
Plasma-cholesterol
Distributed lag
Sao-Paulo
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2012 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
School of Medicine Publications
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 22 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 22 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Wed, 07 Sep 2011, 01:33:37 EST by Geraldine Fitzgerald on behalf of School of Public Health