Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Chauhan, Y. S., Wright, G. C. and Rachaputi, N. C. (2008). Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize. In: Liz Humphreys, Water to gold: Maize Association of Australia 6th Triennial Conference proceedings. 6th Triennial Conference of the Maize Association of Australia, Griffith, Qld., Australia, (358-366). February 2006. doi:10.1071/EA06101


Author Chauhan, Y. S.
Wright, G. C.
Rachaputi, N. C.
Title of paper Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize
Conference name 6th Triennial Conference of the Maize Association of Australia
Conference location Griffith, Qld., Australia
Conference dates February 2006
Proceedings title Water to gold: Maize Association of Australia 6th Triennial Conference proceedings   Check publisher's open access policy
Journal name Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture   Check publisher's open access policy
Place of Publication Collingwood, Vic., Australia
Publisher CSIRO Publishing
Publication Year 2008
Sub-type Fully published paper
DOI 10.1071/EA06101
Open Access Status Not Open Access
ISSN 0816-1089
Editor Liz Humphreys
Volume 48
Issue 3
Start page 358
End page 366
Total pages 9
Language eng
Abstract/Summary Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM’s maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.
Keyword Zea mays L.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ
Additional Notes Animal Production Science (since 2009), ISBN 1836-0939; 1836-5787

 
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