Demographic futures for South East Queensland

Bell, Martin, Charles-Edwards, Elin, Wilson, Tom and Cooper, Jim (2010) Demographic futures for South East Queensland. Australian Planner, 47 3: 126-134. doi:10.1080/07293682.2010.509028

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Author Bell, Martin
Charles-Edwards, Elin
Wilson, Tom
Cooper, Jim
Title Demographic futures for South East Queensland
Journal name Australian Planner   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0729-3682
2150-6841
Publication date 2010-09-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1080/07293682.2010.509028
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 47
Issue 3
Start page 126
End page 134
Total pages 8
Editor Neil Sipe
Place of publication Canberra, ACT, Australia
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Language eng
Subject C1
Abstract In 1981, the population of South East Queensland stood at 1.5 million. Today, the region is home to twice that number, and over the last few years has been increasing in population by an average of 2.7%, or 80,000, per year. Concern about high population growth and its implications for housing affordability, transport, water supply and the environment have recently led some commentators to call for reduced population growth, or even a population cap. This paper examines key characteristics of South East Queensland's population and household trends and presents several scenarios, both plausible and implausible, for their future development. In addition to conventional high and low scenarios, we explore the demographic implications of capping population at current levels. Consequences range from rapid growth (7.4 million by mid-century) to severe ageing. We also show that household growth continues even under conditions of zero population growth. Our results demonstrate that population dynamics involve substantial inertia, with little scope for policy to influence outcomes in the short term. Realistically, planners should be preparing for sustained population growth in South East Queensland with continued population ageing, and large increases in the number of lone person and couple households without children.
Keyword Population
Projections
Immigration
South East Queensland
Big Australia
Sustainability
Population cap
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Special issue: Planning and growth management in South East Queensland

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
Official 2011 Collection
 
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Created: Sat, 12 Feb 2011, 00:32:03 EST by Helen Smith on behalf of School of Geography, Planning & Env Management