Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms

Sutherst, RW and Bourne, AS (2009) Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms. BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS, 11 6: 1231-1237. doi:10.1007/s10530-008-9335-x


Author Sutherst, RW
Bourne, AS
Title Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms
Journal name BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1387-3547
Publication date 2009-06-01
Year available 2008
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s10530-008-9335-x
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 11
Issue 6
Start page 1231
End page 1237
Total pages 6
Place of publication Netherlands
Publisher Springer Netherlands
Language eng
Subject C1
9604 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species
050103 Invasive Species Ecology
Formatted abstract
Invasive species, biological control and
climate change are driving demand for tools to
estimate species’ potential ranges in new environments.
Flawed results from some tools are being used
to inform policy and management in these fields.
Independent validation of models is urgently needed
so we compare the performance of the ubiquitous,
logistic regression and the CLIMEX model in
predicting recent range extensions of the livestock
tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, in Africa.
Both models have been applied to the tick so new,
independent data can be used to test their ability to
model non-equilibrium distributions. Logistical
regression described the spatial data well but failed
to predict the range extensions. CLIMEX correctly
predicted the extensions without fitting the nonequilibrium
data accurately. Our results question the
validity of using descriptive, statistical models to
predict changes in species ranges with translocation
and climate change. More test cases that include
independent validation are needed.
Keyword Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus
VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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Created: Thu, 03 Sep 2009, 18:07:29 EST by Mr Andrew Martlew on behalf of School of Biological Sciences